Energy epidemiology: a holistic approach to understanding energy demand

What is energy epidemiology?

Energy epidemiology takes the method of epidemiology – scientific, systematic, data-driven study of the patterns and determinants of a phenomenon (commonly a disease) – and uses it to consider the causes and effects of the principal factors affecting energy demand within a given population and space: the individuals, buildings, communities or building complexes. In short, it pertains to people, statistics and geography.

The RCUK Centre for Energy Epidemiology (CEE) takes the view that what is required now, once again in line with the study of diseases, is a holistic, multi-disciplinary approach, which should bring what actually happens much closer to what the expectation was based on the research.

The point is to encourage interdependency, rather than looking at factors in silos. By definition, an interdisciplinary approach, favoured by CEE, provides a model for “addressing the complex relationship between people, systems, environment, and energy demand” that come together under the umbrella of energy demand.

Why does this matter?

The bigger picture here, of course, is energy demand reduction; the medium-term context is the UK’s obligation to achieve an 80% reduction in energy emissions by 2050. Moreover, the UK went even further in June 2019, becoming the first major economy to commit to being net zero by 2050: a 100% reduction by that year. This will involve using whole life-cycle carbon, the Green Building Council’s Net Zero Framework, the Future Buildings Standard, and other steps on the journey involving a range of stakeholders. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), a non-government advisory body, has concluded that “net-zero is necessary, feasible and cost-effective”.

Light Bulb. Image by Colin Behrens from Pixabay

How will energy epidemiology contribute?

CEE lists the following challenges and solutions:

Challenges

·         Lack of access to high quality, high resolution data on which to base research

·         Limited capacity to analyse, organise or archive data leading to limited impact

·         Lack of established analytical methods to handle the complex interactions between people, places, society and energy

·         Lack of provision of fast, accurate and precise results to help policymakers meet carbon targets

·         Lack of multidisciplinary activity in a complex area leading to narrow focus and incomplete understanding

·         Poor linkage between theory and practice to provide tools and guidance for practitioners and policymakers

Solutions

·         Undertake research and publish guidance on the use of energy monitoring technology to improve data collection

·         Build new, high-quality data frameworks and datasets on which to build a more robust understanding of energy demand

·         Develop cutting-edge data handling and analysis techniques to maximise their value to policymakers and industry

·         Develop a new range of models that use the energy epidemiology approach to better explain energy demand

·         Engage and communicate with key stakeholders to establish CEE as a lynchpin of the energy demand research community

As can be seen, each challenge has been met with a practical solution. Furthermore, CEE provides a lot of detail on its research questions, research themes and methodologies via a programme of work. There is too much detail to go into in this short piece, but it is worth saying something about the areas covered by the three research themes and the methodologies:

·         Domestic Buildings – Research involving homes and the people who own and live in them

·         Non-Domestic Buildings – Research involving commercial and public sector buildings and the people who own and work in them

·         Transport – Research involving vehicles, travel by land air or sea and those that use them

We can see how the holistic approach is being implemented here via an amalgam of what we might call objects – buildings and vehicles – and subjects – people. The inter-relationship of the two creates data, which can then be considered via the methodologies, which are:

·         Metrology – this pertains to addressing uncertainty regarding monitoring. There hasn’t been enough research into the performance of the instruments used in energy-related data collection. This theme will look at the current research, make an analysis of any metrological constraints and propose objectives for future programmes

·         Data Framework – this is the largest them and will involve developing systems to match millions of data points. It will build on previous Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) data framework projects with new transport data sets, maintained in a secure and ethically appropriate state of the art database structure.

·         Analysis – The first data framework project demonstrated the usefulness of results and challenges posed by the analysis and interpretation of energy data. Analysis techniques for such large data sets are far less developed in the area of End Use Energy Demand (EUED) than in other disciplines. Maximising the value of data will require cutting-edge techniques for data handling and analysis.

·         Theory and Modelling – they will develop a range of new models and test their usefulness, for example, building on previous work that has been developing top-down empirically based models and dynamic models. Where appropriate they will integrate model development with developments such as the Department of Energy & Climate Change’s (DECC) National Household Model and will work with DECC and their contractors.

This is clearly very ambitious, but it should be, given both the stakes and the expertise of the people involved. Its task is to provide an evidence base to support end use energy reduction in buildings and transport, which government, industry and academia can then make use of at the level of policy, practice and theory. But its scope is even wider: this page gives examples of the wider community upon which it is trying to have an impact: research collaborations; performance networks; and examples of international engagement. Let’s end with quoting its impressive vision, which gets across quite how ground-breaking much of this is:

“Our vision is to precipitate a paradigm shift in the way we understand energy demand through the development of new research methods and tools – specifically, application of epidemiological methods to large, linked data sets on energy demand across sectors, people, energy systems and infrastructure. CEE aims to spearhead a new research field, energy epidemiology, based around a secure and accessible data repository available for all UK researchers via a bureau service. This will put the UK in the lead internationally in the understanding of complex interactions between people, energy use and systems of technology. Most importantly, it will provide a step change in provision of evidence to support innovation in policy, markets, products, services and systems to meet carbon targets over the critical coming half century.”

Many people reading this short piece will have a part to play in this journey, so let’s wish CEE the best of success.